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Anton Koren, Head of the Transport Strategy Center (TSC), presented a strategic overview of the economics of the road freight transportation market at the Eurasian Economic Commission session at the International Transport and Logistics Forum.

The Eurasian Economic Commission event "Partnership Dialogue of International Road Carriers of the Eurasian Economic Union Member States in the EAEU+ Format" was held on the sidelines of the International Transport and Logistics Forum.
Arzybek Kozhoshev, Member of the Board (Minister) for Energy and Infrastructure of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC), opened the event and delivered a welcoming speech.

Anton Koren, Head of the Transport Strategy Center (TSC), presented a strategic overview of the economics of the road freight transportation market:

Digital transformation processes are sweeping the entire transport industry, including the rapidly developing road freight segment. This directly impacts the state of the market and its economic adaptation potential: familiar business processes are changing, new opportunities are emerging, and at the same time, additional challenges are emerging.

Key Challenges for the Industry

Anton Koren characterized the current state of the road freight transportation market as tense. "As of early 2026, the road freight transportation market is operating under the simultaneous influence of several key factors: high financing costs, rising carrier costs, labor shortages, increased requirements for digital document management, and expanded government control," stated the head of the Transport Strategy Center (TSC).

He noted that some transport companies ceased operations last year, and the profitability of a significant number of remaining participants declined. "The first key problem for the industry is that cost growth is outpacing carriers' ability to pass these costs on to tariffs. Moreover, the significant tariff increase at the beginning of 2026 is merely compensation for the cost increases of the past two years," Koren emphasized.

The head of the Transport Strategy Center (TSC) also focused on the driver shortage. "There is a driver shortage, and drivers exist, but they work in other sectors of the economy. So why are they leaving?" "Because the current economic conditions don't create a favorable environment for attracting them to road freight transportation, including on the basis of wages," Anton Koren stated.

Digitalization as a driver of industry development, but also as a factor in economic pressure without creating conditions for adaptation

Let's consider the factors to which the industry must adapt in a short timeframe. Using the example of what freight forwarders in Russia are facing:
• A notification mechanism for freight forwarding activities has come into effect.
• Also, the mandatory transition of some shipping documents to electronic format.
• Obligations under the Specialized Labor Inspection System (SPOT) are planned.
• And other less significant mandatory digitalization processes, which also influence adaptation to the new conditions.

For the road freight market, this means not only additional digital obligations, but also increased sensitivity of the entire logistics chain to data errors. Data inconsistencies increase the risk of delays, ineligible cargo, and so on, which has a direct economic impact, Anton Koren emphasized.

He noted that the situation of small and medium-sized businesses is of particular concern. "It is especially critical and sensitive for small trucking companies and small and medium-sized businesses," the expert noted.

Given the industry's forecast for the expected exit of large companies from the market, economic stabilization in the industry has not yet fully occurred, and many are operating under subsidies from their founders in the conditions of early 2026.

Anton Koren warned of the possible negative economic consequences of accelerated consolidation of carriers or the creation of additional conditions for the exit of even large players.

This creates risks of unmet demand due to the formation of niches that cannot be immediately filled, weakening price competition, and reduced availability of transportation services for certain regions and certain segments due to unmet demand.

This will ultimately lead to a slowdown in the flow of goods and an increase in tariffs, leading to increased transportation costs in the economy.

At the same time, digitalization should only have a positive impact on the industry's development. To achieve this, in the current conditions, Anton Koren proposed creating a favorable environment for adapting to mandatory innovations.

Transport Strategy Center (TSC) Recommendations

1. Extend the transition period for implementing digital solutions, during which penalties are not applied.
2. Ensure the ability to submit corrections when errors are detected in all systems.
3. Stagger the implementation of mandatory digital systems to avoid a sudden burden on the industry and the inability to adapt to new conditions.
4. Automate the waiver of penalties in the event of information system failures.
 

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